Tropical depression expected to form in Gulf this weekend

PC NOAA. CLICK TO ENLARGE

PC NOAA. CLICK TO ENLARGE

If the tropical system develops, forecasters say it's a "rare" occasion given that the low formed over land and is meandering southward into the Gulf of Mexico where, if it develops, is expected to turn back toward Florida's west to northwest coast.

Since there is still a possibility the developing storm will turn north toward the central Gulf coast this weekend, we can not confidently rule out squally weather in the western Florida Panhandle.

The tropical trouble expected in the Gulf later this week, and the new model runs suggesting a path at Texas, have lots of folks wondering if this is Alicia Part 2? At this time, there are still a wide range of scenarios as to how this system could track and intensify, but for now this is still just something to watch. They are simply waiting for more consistent guidance on where the system will go once in the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight, it's another quiet night under mostly clear skies, and lows slip into the 60s. Temperatures will be slow to cool, eventually dropping to an overnight low of 76° with light winds. Dry conditions continue into Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper 80s.

As of the 10:00 am advisory there is now word on evacuations, but as that information becomes available we will push that out so make sure to keep updated on the situation. A drying trend this weekend has temperatures and rain chance chances turning more seasonable.

A ridge of high pressure has been keeping the Southeast firecracker hot and humid since the holiday and that same feature keeps the upper level winds weak.

Most likely, this system will be well inland in six to seven days and weather improves along the coast. "While it is premature to determine the potential impact to Florida's Gulf Coast, heavy rain looks like an increasing possibility".

Hurricane hunters could go out to investigate as early as tomorrow.

For now it does look like Alabama will be on the wet, east side of the circulation, meaning deep tropical moisture will be pushed into the state, and we stand a chance of seeing beneficial rain Wednesday through the weekend.

Computer models are in slight agreement that Invest 92L will meander westerly along the northern Gulf of Mexico before hooking northward toward Louisiana or Mississippi.

Very heavy rainfall amounts appear the be the greatest concern, with initial estimates of between 7 and 15 inches of rain falling over the next seven days.