Normal monsoon expected this season: IMD

Rains, thunderstorm likely in Nagpur Max temp in Nagpur is expected to be 38 degree Celsius on Saturday

Rains, thunderstorm likely in Nagpur Max temp in Nagpur is expected to be 38 degree Celsius on Saturday

As per the local weather forecast, there is a possibility of rain, thunderstorm or dust-storm in various districts of the region.

'Monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season, ' the Indian Meteorological Department said on Monday.

A good monsoon is good news for the Indian economy. Unlike the IMD, Skymet had predicted a 100 per cent normal Monsoon, with an error estimate of plus-minus 5 per cent.

Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent. These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) that is critically reviewed and improved regularly through in-house research activities.

The latest forecasts from the MMCFS and global models indicate weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season.

The IMD defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres for the entire four-month season beginning June. Last year, rainfall was close to normal at 95% of the LPA, while in 2016 rains were recorded at 97% of LPA. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient".

The rains after making a steady start in June and July, went for an extended break in August and also till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall.

Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.